How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation β a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister β a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal β and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us β for our nation β the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas β even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines β something Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority β and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.