Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
