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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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